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2007年5月18日 (金)

北極海関連

北極海と温暖化に伴う領土問題等

"U.S. Senator Lugar says Russia wants Arctic energy reserves," RIA Novosti, 16 May 2007,  <http://en.rian.ru/world/20070516/65556146.html> (18 May 2007)によると、米上院議員richard G. Lugarは、北極海における米エネルギー資源に対するロシアの意図を警告し、UNCLOS加盟を促している。上記報道より抜粋
"The issue has acquired importance in view of dwindling global energy resources. Experts forecast that oil reserves on land would soon be exhausted and the only available fields will be in Persian Gulf and on deep sea shelves.

Lugar said Russia had claimed the right to develop the reserves, which could become more accessible due to ice melting in climate change. The Russian government is expected to meet this week to discuss hydrocarbon production on the sea."

なお、PACOM司令官であったDennis C. Blair大将もUNCLOS批准に賛意を示していた。
"U.S. ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will greatly empower UNCLOS as an authoritative force to guide and restrain the behavior of nations in the Asia-Pacific region. While protection of robust navigation rights is critical to regional security and economic development, many Asia-Pacific countries assert excessive maritime claims that challenge these rights. Ratification will strengthen our hand in demanding compliance with UNCLOS requirements and in countering excessive maritime claims. In short, ratification will guarantee protection of navigation rights vital to executing our missions and carrying out our policies."UNITED STATES PACIFIC COMMAND: Written Statement of Admiral Dennis C. Blair, USN Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific Command, "HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE ON FISCAL YEAR 2000 POSTURE STATEMENT," 3 March 1999, <http://www.pacom.mil/speeches/sst1999/hasc-s.htm> (10 Oct 2004)

関連報道

○北方航路の貨物輸送量の見通し
赤井謙一氏は、北方航路経由の貨物輸送量は87年に最大となり約650トン、99年には150万トン以下になったが、潜在的には2010年には1,200万トン、2020年には5,000万トンになると推定している。
「ロシアの北極海域用砕氷船 その現状と将来」
『世界の艦船』2001年11月号、152頁。

○カナダ軍関連
北極海航路は欧州とアジアを結ぶ経路としてのみならず、潜在的な資源埋蔵地域という観点からも注目されている。カナダ軍は2004年8月に北極地方で演習を行っているが、このような状況が反映していると考えられる。カナダの想定する対象国はロシアだけではない。以下は、↓の抜粋。カナダ軍は、PKOに積極的に参加する平和愛好国家としてみなされてるようだが、結局Robert CooperがThe Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-First Centuryで規定している"modern" statetsではないか。
CLIFFORD KRAUSS, “Canada Reinforces Its Disputed Claims in the Arctic,” The New York Times, 29 Aug 2004,<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/international/americas/29canada.html?ex=1094702400&en=da55bc14489f1b8d&ei=5070> (12 Dec 2005)

"The $4 million exercise is the most prominent sign to date of Canada's intensifying effort to reinforce disputed claims over tens of thousands of miles of Arctic channels and tundra.
Once nearly permanently frozen, forbidding and forgotten, the region is today seen by officials from Canada and competing nations as a potential source of both wealth and trouble.
Not all of Canada's vast claims to the Arctic are recognized internationally. The United States, the European Union and Denmark either contend that the region's waterways are open to all or have placed their own claims on parts where climate change is expected to increase access to the region's bountiful resources in coming years.Diamond finds have already inspired a new mining rush, making Canada the world's third largest producer. Canada wants someday to tap natural gas in the Beaufort Sea in a frigid zone, bordering Alaska and Yukon Territory, which the United States tried to auction off to oil companies last year. The companies balked, preferring not to get mixed up in an international squabble.
Despite unusual challenges from Denmark, a NATO ally, Canada is also laying claim to an Arctic island with potential oil riches off its rocky shore.
Most important, climate change has begun to make more real the dream of opening a northwest passage that would shorten ship travel between Europe and Asia by thousands of miles, over the decades to come. Canadian policy makers want to reserve the right to regulate and tax such a passage.
"We used to forget that the Arctic was our border," Foreign Minister Pierre Pettigrew said in an interview. "There has been a change of perception of our reality, of where we belong."

北極地域を観測する偵察衛星も打ち上げた(打ち上げを報じた記事は怠慢なので掌握してない)かもしれない。<http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/international/americas/29canada.html?pagewanted=2&ei=5070&en=da55bc14489f1b8d&ex=1094702400>
"The government has approved the launching of a satellite, Radarsat II, next year that will provide high-resolution surveillance across the Arctic to monitor the movement of surface ships. Military planners hope the satellite will work in tandem with pilotless aerial vehicles being tested during this year's exercises to see if they can provide useful intelligence despite the Arctic's low cloud cover.
Defense Minister Bill Graham noted that global warming had created "new possibilities and new threats" in the Arctic that Canada must adjust to.
"We need more resources up there and we are going to look for ways to deploy them," he said in an interview. "The sense is now the time has come."
Skeptics note, however, that even the new surveillance capacity will still not be able to detect the American, Russian, British and French nuclear submarines that periodically sail under the Arctic ice in waters claimed by Canada. Even if the submarines can be detected, the Canadian Navy does not have submarines or surface warships capable of operating in the high Arctic to do anything about it.
Seventeen years ago, the government of Brian Mulroney announced that it would buy 10 nuclear-powered submarines to prowl the disputed northern passages and upgrade five Arctic airfields to step up electronic reconnaissance flights. But the expansion was shelved in 1989 because of budget constraints.
"We have a habit of beginning northern security projects and abandoning them," noted Rob Huebert, associate director of the Center for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary.
But he said climate change, rising energy prices and increased security concerns seemed to be driving Canadian policy makers to take action.
"We're starting to get serious about surveillance in our Arctic," he added. "I finally see some action."" (強調筆者)

中略

"The patrol was Canada's response to an unlikely challenge from Denmark, which in two previous summers had landed marines from ice-cutting frigates on Hans Island, a desolate piece of rock in the Kennedy Channel, between Greenland and Ellesmere Island."


○北極地域の開発の影響
北極航路の利便性が増大すると、シベリア地方の開発も進行すると思われる。同地における石油、天然ガスの埋蔵量は中東地域のそれに比肩しており、北極海航路の重要性が増大するならば、中東地域の重要性は相対的に低下する。その結果、中東への関心や資金の流入が減少し、中東の抱える諸問題が拡大する可能性が指摘されている 。Jessie C.Carman, “Economic and Strategic Impliations of Ice-Free Arctic Seas,” Sam J.Tangredi ed, Globalization and Maritime Power, (Washington, D C, National Defense University, 2002I), p.179.

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