2008年8月19日 (火)

チベット解放に関する一考察

表記について、↓は業務の参考に資すると思料。
"War inside Tibet - goals, strategies and equipment," Bharat Rakshak , <http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4067> (19 Aug 2008)

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2007年1月 5日 (金)

ミャンマーのココ諸島には中国のSIGINT施設は存在しない。

Andrew Selthは、ミャンマーのココ諸島には、中国のSIGINT施設は存在していないと断じている。Andrew Selth, “Chinese Whispers: The Great Coco Island Mystery,” Irrawaddy, 31 Dec 2006, <http://www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=6536&z=102> (31 Dec 2006)

Selth によると、ここ十数年来報じられていたココ諸島に於ける中国のSIGINT施設は存在しておらず、また存在していたこともない。同人が述べるには、本事案の発端はかつて世界屈指であった同盟通信社の素晴らしい遺産を継承した共同通信様1992917日発の報道とのこと。そしてCiting diplomatic sources in Beijing, Kyodo claimed that China was building a radar facility on Burma’s Coco islands, under a secret agreement with the SLORC. The Kyodo report was picked up by Reuters the next day, and repeated in the

US

newspaper The Estimate the following week. From there, the story quickly found its way into a wide range of newspapers and military journals.とのこと。

同人は以下のとおり続けている。

本報道は中国に否定されたが、The Estimate1022日関連事象を報道。これらの報道によって本事例報道は増大し、同基地には中国軍人技術者70名以上が駐留しているとされ、90年代半ばまでには50メートルに及ぶアンテナが存在すると報じられるに至った。(担当者註:Kent E Calderは、50メートルのアンテナが新たに建設され、92年に西側諸国の偵察衛星によって撮影されたと自著で述べている。Kent E Calder Asias Deadly Triangle(Sonoma:Nicholas Brealey Publishing, 1997), p.105.

あとは大儀なのでもう寝る。

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2006年12月27日 (水)

中国、レーザー兵器をベンガル湾で使用?

ディフェンス・ニュース誌は、中国が米国の衛星に対してレーザー兵器による攻撃を試みたと報じていたが[1]、インドでも同様の被害が2001年に発生していた模様[2]。この報道では中国による攻撃であるとは断じていないが、中国の関与を強く示唆した内容である。

報道では、

Ten out of 35 drifting buoys deployed by the Department of Ocean Development (DOOD) in the Bay of Bengal were found to be destroyed during a recent inspection, officials said.

Scientists have thoroughly examined the buoys and suggest that laser weapons may have destroyed them.

Buoys have been earlier vandalised in the Indian Ocean.

But DOOD officials say that this case is different.

DOOD’s buoys floated in the Arabian Ocean are intact. 

 とある。本報道では続けて、ベンガル湾における中国のプレゼンス拡大、就中、中国「漁船」の活動、ココ諸島におけるSIGINT施設の存在を指摘し、中国の関与を強く示唆している。

 本報道は署名記事ではなく、また掲載されたサイトであるnewsinsight.netの信頼性に関しては不明。しかしDonald L.Berlinのような専門家は、newsinsight.netに依拠した記事を査読があるであろう学会誌(に準じた雑誌)、例えばNaval War College Review やContemporary South Asia に寄稿、掲載されている[3]。よって同サイトは、斯界においては相応の信頼性が認められていると思量する。


[1]VAGO MURADIAN “China Attempted To Blind U.S. Satellites With Laser, Defense News, 28 Sep 2006,  <http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=2121111&C=america> (14 Dec 2006)

[2] “Indian buoys destroyed by lasers,” newsinsight net, 24 August 2001, <http://newsinsight.net/nati2.asp?recno=153&ctg=Defence> (14 Dec 2006)

[3] 例えば、"The ’great base race’in the Indian Ocean littoral: conflict prevention or stimulation?, “Contemporary South Asia, 13(3), (September 2004) ,pp. 239–255.や、”India in the Indian Ocean,” Naval War College Review, Vol. 59, No. 2, (Spring 2006), <http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/2006/spring/pdfs/art3-sp06.pdf> (15 Aug 2006)を参照。

前者ではモルジブにおけるPLANのマラオ(Marao)島租借関連について、後者では、That the Chinese navy is currently operating, or planning to operate, submarines in or near the Bay of Bengal is suggested by “Three Submarines Damaged by Earthquake” (30 December 2004) and “2 Chinese Spy Ships Seized off Andamans” (30 November2004), both NEWSInsight, newsinsight.net. としてベンガル湾におけるPLA活動について依拠。

ただしマラオ島なる島は存在しないと指摘する資料もある。。

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2006年7月29日 (土)

Bangladesh to boost its military capabilities

バングラデシュの国防力整備動向関連。

バングラデシュ軍の動向で注目すべきは、近代化の一環として「3次元」能力の構築を目指し、潜水艦の購入を決定していることである。また、パキスタンからの哨戒艇購入も決定されており、軍事協力、ベンガル湾での勢力推移という2点で注目する価値は大きい。

報道例

Jane’s Defence Weekly, 7 Apr 2004,p.20.

Nazrul Islam, "Bangladesh to procure submarines, patrol aircrafts to guard maritime boundary," ANI, 22 May 2006, < http://www.newkerala.com/news2.php?action=fullnews&id=63354>  (15 Jul 2006)

In line with the government's decision, the Navy will procure four submarines and two maritime patrol aircrafts and other equipment in a bid to protect its maritime territory, part of which has reportedly been intruded by neighbours - India and Myanmar.

"The Bangladesh Navy is undergoing a process of modernisation and transformation from a ‘green water' navy to a dedicated powerful ‘blue water' ocean going navy with plans to introduce four modern submarines, additional guided missile frigates, two maritime patrol aircraft, four missile corvettes, additional offshore patrol vessels, six patrol crafts ..." said a report in the website of the Bangladesh Navy.

The army says the government could have alarmed by the illegal oil and gas exploration by the India and Myanmar into Bangladesh ‘s sovereign water territory. India started exploration on 18,000 sq km territory, while Myanmar carried out survey on a 17,000 sq km area.

パキスタンから潜水艦を調達?

Josy Joseph, "Pakistan to gift old submarines to Bangladesh Navy," <http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1033053> (28 Jul 2006)

Sources said Pakistan would be refurbishing two of its Daphne class submarines, which are being decommissioned presently, and give it to Bangladesh Navy. Pakistan Navy had acquired four Daphne class submarined from France in 1969-70.

上記報道への否定報道。 

"No gift of old Pakistani submarines for Bangladesh," PakTribune, June 05, 2006, <http://paktribune.com/news/index.php?id=145891>(6 Jun 2006)

The spokesman, quoting a statement from the Bangladesh Navy, said no deal was struck between the two countries on the submarines during Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's official visit to Pakistan from February 12-14 this year .

ベンガル湾における海洋権益紛争も、バングラデシュ海軍の整備動向に影響してると思われる。

"B'desh charges India with poaching on oil, gas," IANS, JUNE 29, 2006, <http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1689937.cms >  (2 Jul 2006)

Bangladesh has once again charged India with inviting oil and gas exploration tenders in un-demarcated areas of the Bay of Bengal, media reports said.

Prime Minister Khaleda Zia told the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) that Dhaka had lodged a strong protest with New Delhi on this and that she had personally spoken to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during their meeting in March.

上記の海上境界が未画定の部分に関しては、以下を参照。

インドとバングラデシュとの海上境界問題は、インドの主張する等距離/中間線の原則と、バングラデシュの主張する平衡性の原則を巡る相違や、沖合いに所在するニュー・ムーア島の領有権の争いである。双方はこの問題を巡り、74年以来会談を続けている 。Rahul  Roy-Chaudhury, India’s Maritime Security, (New Delhi: Knowledge World, 2000),pp.60-61.より要約。

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2006年7月23日 (日)

Myanmar-DPRK military connection

北朝鮮とミャンマーの軍事協力に関する報道。

Greg Sheridan, "Burma seeks nuclear weapons alliance with N Korea," The Australian, 5 Jul 2006,  2006<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19689419-31477,00.html> (23 Jul 2006)

"What is Pyongyang up to in Kachin State?" irrawaddy. org, April 01, 2004<http://www.irrawaddy.org/aviewer.asp?a=941&z=12>  (14 Sep 2004)この記事は軍事協力とは直接関係ない。

"N.Korea reactor for Myanmar," 6 May 2004<http://www.newsinsight.net/nati2.asp?recno=2736&ctg=World> (23 Jul 2006)
Myanmar is planning to construct a nuclear research reactor at Natmauk in Myothit in Central Burma with North-Korean assistance.

Matthew P. Daley, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs Testimony before the House International Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific and Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Human Rights Washington, DC March 25, 2004
<http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2004/30789.htm>  (23 Jul 2006)

Bertil Lintner and Shawn W. Crispin, "Dangerous Bedfellows:Evidence of a blossoming military relationship between pariah regimes in Rangoon and Pyongyang is causing growing concern overseas,"Far Eastern Economic Review, Nov. 20, 2003

"Burma Stregthens Military Ties with DPRK," Chosun Ilbo, 4 Jul 2004,
http://nk.chosun.com/english/news/news.html?ACT=detail&key=1&res_id=4612  (18 May 2004)

ミャンマーの核兵器保有の可能性についてAndrew Selth,は、Despite a few rather odd suggestions to the contrary, there has never been any sign that Burma has even considered the acquisition or use of nuclear weapons. Nor is it likely to do so.としている。

Andrew Selth, Burma's Armed Forces: Power without Glory, (Norwalk: EastBridge, 2002), p.244.
また同人は原発建設に関しても否定的見解を示している。p.246。.

同人の関連記事として以下のものがある。
"Burma's North Korean Gambit: A Challenge to Regional Security?" ANU, March 2006,
<http://rspas.anu.edu.au/sdsc/canberra_papers.php#CP154>

"Burma and Weapons of Mass Destruction," ANU, 1999
<http://rspas.anu.edu.au/sdsc/working_papers.php#WP334>

ミャンマーの核兵器関連報道の信頼性は極めて低いとの報道がある。 Maxmilian Wechsler, "Nuclear claims deserve scepticism,"  Bangkok Post, 25 Apr 2006, <http://www.burmanet.org/news/2006/04/25/bangkok-post-nuclear-claims-deserve-scepticism-maxmilian-wechsler/> (23 Jul 2006)
It is important to keep in mind that to date the claims of a Burmese nuclear programme have come mostly from dissidents who may be trying to spur the international community toward direct action against the military rulers.

中略

According to a western diplomat based in Bangkok, “It is nonsense to say that Burma plans to purchase nuclear technology from Russia or North Korea in order to build a weapon.

“What some Burmese dissidents are attempting to do is what their Iraqi counterparts did before them- the result was the invasion of Iraq, the consequences of which are well known to everyone.”

対北朝鮮軍事協力として、弾道弾関連記事も報じられていた。

N.Korea ballistic missiles for Burma likely,
14 October 2003,
http://www.newsinsight.net/nati2.asp?recno=2363 (23 Jul 2006)

ミャンマーの弾道弾保有に関してSelthは In this context, it is worth noting that Burma has never possesed ballistic missiles. Nor has it expressed any serious interest in acquring them, despite rumours in 1999 that the SPDC had asked China for some M-11 short-range ballistic missiles, of the kind reportedly helb by pakistan.として否定的。
Ibid.

昔、パキスタンの原子力関連科学者が亡命したとの報道もあった。
"Myanmar gives asylum to two Pak nuke scientists,"
PTI , NOVEMBER 23, 2001,<http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1503847143.cm > (26 Nov 2001)

Close on the heels of US intelligence officials questioning two Pakistani scientists on their alleged links with Osama Bin Laden's al Qaeda, Myanmar authorities have reportedly granted sanctuary to two other Pakistani nuclear scientists following a request from Islamabad, according to highly placed intelligence sources.

The two scientists, Dr Suleiman Asad and Dr Mohammad Ali Mukhtar, have been flown to Sagaing division of Myanmar, after the authorities in Yangon acceded to Pakistan regime's request, the sources said here.

上記の科学者について、

Dr. Rajesh Kumar Mishra, "Nuclear Scientific Community of Pakistan: Clear and Present Danger to Nonproliferation," SAAG,  07.02. 2003, <http://www.saag.org/papers7/paper601.html> (23 Jul 2006)

8. Dr. Muhammd Ali Mukhtar:

Dr. Mukhtar is Ph.D in nuclear physics and has served in Khusab and Islamabad offices of PAEC. He is said to have joined PAEC in early 1980s. This Scientist is a weapon expert. He was allowed to slip out of Pakistan to Myanmar along with Dr. Suleiman Asad fearing interrogation by American agencies. The duo are said to have participated in an unspecified “research programme” in Myanmar. Before leaving to Myanmar, the scientist had been working in Khan Research Laboratories in the department dealing with defence production. The scientist is said to have connections with Al Qaeda.

9. Dr. Suleiman Asad:

To escape the interrogation regarding his linkage with Al Qaeda, with the support of Musharraf government Dr. Asad along with Dr. Ali Mukhtar had flown to Sagaing division of Myanmar. Dr. Asad is a weapon expert.
とある。

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2006年7月18日 (火)

Myanmar and North Korea share a tunnel vision

北朝鮮とミャンマー、いつの間にかいい感じ。首都移転に続く、坑道戦専門家の訪問に注目。
 
Bertil Lintner, "Myanmar and North Korea share a tunnel vision," Asia Times, Jul 19, 2006, <http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/HG19Ae01.html> (18 Jul 2006)

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